Long Term Trading Forex

This is my 17th year of trading having traded everything that you can hold, eat, smell, taste and grow. I started out on the Daily time frame, blew numerous accounts and over $200K. I have bought books, videos, tapes, dvds, systems, black boxes, and paid stupid, stupid money to attend seminars by those famous $million traders.

I am a degreed mechanical engineer by profession so I love technical analysis and spent hours, days, months and years modifying and developing indicators and devising my own systems. The dawn of realisation hit me a couple of years ago when I realised all I was doing was re-living history. At about the same time, I came across a few professional traders and ex – floor traders and thought this was my golden opportunity to learn THE SECRET. Well it was – but not what I expected!

Far from having super – dooper highly fandangled systems, I learned all they had was their EYES and EARS! No fancy squiggly lines for them – if it went up, they bought; if it went down they sold. Every single one of them told me the same thing – TRADING IS SIMPLE, DON’T COMPLICATE IT.

So, apart from a few indicators which I use to track cycles and volume, I trade what the market tells me.

After having success on the Daily and Weekly time frames, I decided I needed something to do during the day, so I thought I will do the same thing but on M5 time frame. Wow, I couldn’t do it. Everything was just moving too fast for me, the wheels between my ears couldn’t keep up!

I then stumbled across some professional traders who left their jobs and set up on their own and published their strategy on another forum. I eventually got M5 and M15 to work for me but it was so stressful. After spending all day watching the one eyed monster for a measly 100 pips or so, I felt so mentally and emotionally drained that I couldn’t sleep well at night. Then as my health deteriorated, so did my profits.

Again, another moment of realisation for me – I’m not suited for anything faster than trading the Daily. I raised and trained myself on the Daily and up and that is where I belong.

I will post my analysis and trades here for anyone who is interested and hopefully share further insight with like minded traders.

I will apologise right now for my weird sense of humour but I need balance in my life and I know no better way than having a good laugh – usually at my own expense! I celebrated my 3rd 20th birthday last June but usually feel like a 16 year old! (Anyone know where I can get a 16 year old?)

I was a lead guitarist in a group back in England in the early 60s playing Buddy Holly, Chuck Berry, Roy Orbison and Elvis plus all the other stuff. I made it through the Holly inspired British rock n roll era until Jimi Hendrix came on the scene playing scales I couldn’t even pronounce let alone play! (Pentatonic, Lydian, Mixolydian, Aeolian, Locrian, Dorian etc.). At that point me and my 57 Telecaster and 59 Stratocaster decided to call it a day!

I will start this off with my last post on a previous forum:

Originally Posted by Stuart14

Strat, do you like USD:CHF going lower longer term?

USDCHF:
Both technically and fundamentally, USDCHF is looking for direction from EURUSD.
Here is what we know technically:

Weekly:
In a corrective up move within the larger, dominant down move. This correction is now losing momentum having been rejected by Fib resistance.
The 20 continues to move in parallel above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices.

Daily:
We have a swing top in place on Feb 20 and now in a down cycle. Prices are in a corrective up cycle within the down cycle trying to re – test the swing high, however, momentum is non – existent. Again, the swing high is at final Fib resistance.
The 20 is above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices but they are converging.
There is major support at 1.1400 which, so far, is being successful in rejecting the downward attack.

What’s next?
Who knows? I certainly don’t.
A possible scenario is that when both the Weekly and Daily down cycles are in harmony, we may see a retrace down to their respective 38.2% Fib retracements before making a push to newer highs.

Now throw in a splash of funny mentals which are saying “we are in a world financial crisis, what shall I do with my money?” The answer, by the majority of actions, is to go to cash. “But which currency I hear you say?” GBP is teetering on the edge of the cliff with EUR a couple of steps behind. JPY is being whored by BOJ and CHF, although backed by gold, is being overlooked by the big boys so what is left? Well Japan and China are buying US$ which is still the World currency and backed by the World’s largest economy (printing press) so that’s the situation right now.

So how to trade USDCHF? – don’t (at least not until we have clear direction).

Most currencies are in some sort of daily consolidation/ranging phase right now which is when the Pros put their hands on their wallets and the novices/amateurs use theirs like monopoly money.

Wait for the right opportunity – it is already being set up somewhere – our job is to find out where, when and which one, but it is there.

Me, I’m taking the strings off my 59 Strat to see why they are rattling on the frets so I think I’ll give her a good going over.

Rock n Roll,
Strat